U.S. Inflation Update: StratAlign Insights Nails the Forecast
StratAlign Insights' proprietary economic model accurately predicted January 2026 inflation, missing the actual number by less than one-tenth of one percent. This level of precision validates the analytical framework we have developed to navigate today's complex inflation environment.
Here's What the Latest Inflation Data Shows:
The Good News:
Headline CPI came in at 2.4% year-over-year, down significantly from 3.0% (Jan 2025).
Core CPI at 2.5% is steadily approaching the Fed's 2% target, -0.8% from 3.3% (Jan 2025).
Housing inflation is finally moderating, dropping to 3.4% from 3.9% (Jan 2025).
Energy is providing real relief with -0.3% deflation year-over-year.
Gasoline prices are down 8.7% compared to last year.
What's Still Problematic:
Hospital services’ inflation has surged to 6.9% year-over-year.
Food inflation is accelerating to 2.9% from 2.4% (Jan 2025).
Core inflation continues to be stickier than headline numbers suggest.
Services inflation has been particularly difficult to bring down.
Why Don’t Consumers Feel the Relief Yet: There is a real disconnect between what the data shows and what people experience day-to-day. Lower inflation does not mean lower prices, it just means prices are rising more slowly. And the categories that hit household budgets the hardest are still climbing:
Healthcare costs are up nearly 7% from last year.
Housing is still rising 3.4% annually.
Food prices are climbing faster than overall inflation at 2.9%.
When you add up three years of elevated inflation since 2021, everyday expenses remain substantially higher than before the pandemic.
The reality is straightforward: wages need time to catch up to three years of price increases before families will genuinely feel relief at the checkout line or when paying bills.
Looking Ahead to 2026: Our models are projecting inflation will stabilize around 2.5% by year-end, with core inflation potentially reaching 2.3% by September. We are making progress on getting inflation under control, but there is an interesting wrinkle: energy inflation is going to show readings above 6% throughout 2026 even though gasoline and oil prices are actually declining. This happens because we are comparing against 2025's unusually low energy prices, it is a statistical quirk that will not match what consumers see at the gas pump.
What This Means: Inflation is coming down, but it is uneven across sectors. Energy deflation is masking ongoing pressure in healthcare and housing. The Fed has a tricky path ahead, while core inflation trends would support rate cuts, the volatility in headline numbers and persistent pressure in specific sectors makes the timing complicated. More importantly, everyday consumers will not feel like inflation is truly under control until price levels actually stabilize or come down, not just slow their rate of increase.
Want to dig deeper? Read our full analysis: "The Economic Paradox of 2025-2026: What the Numbers Really Tell Us." We break down the energy inflation paradox, provide detailed sector-by-sector analysis, and explore what all this means for Fed policy and business strategy throughout 2026. At StratAlign Insights, our commitment is to provide actionable intelligence that cuts through the noise of conventional economic commentary and helps decision-makers navigate uncertainty with confidence.
Where do you think inflation is headed in 2026? Share your perspective.
This analysis represents an informed perspective based on current economic indicators. Readers are encouraged to conduct independent research and form their own conclusions about economic conditions and policy effectiveness. This report is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.
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By: StratAlign Insights
February 13, 2026, 1:00 pm ET